Pre-exposure cognitive performance variability is associated with severity of respiratory infection.

Using data from a longitudinal viral challenge study, we find that the post-exposure viral shedding and symptom severity are associated with a novel measure of pre-exposure cognitive performance variability (CPV), defined before viral exposure occurs. Each individual's CPV score is computed from data collected from a repeated NeuroCognitive Performance Test (NCPT) over a 3 day pre-exposure period. Of the 18 NCPT measures reported by the tests, 6 contribute materially to the CPV score, prospectively differentiating the high from the low shedders. Among these 6 are the 4 clinical measures digSym-time, digSym-correct, trail-time, and reaction-time, commonly used for assessing cognitive executive functioning. CPV is found to be correlated with stress and also with several genes previously reported to be associated with cognitive development and dysfunction. A perturbation study over the number and timing of NCPT sessions indicates that as few as 5 sessions is sufficient to maintain high association between the CPV score and viral shedding, as long as the timing of these sessions is balanced over the three pre-exposure days. Our results suggest that variations in cognitive function are closely related to immunity and susceptibility to severe infection. Further studying these relationships may help us better understand the links between neurocognitive and neuroimmune systems which is timely in this COVID-19 pandemic era.

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.

Physician perceptions of surveillance: Wearables, Apps, and Chatbots for COVID-19

Background and Purpose: To characterize the global physician community’s opinions on the use of digital tools for COVID-19 public health surveillance and self-surveillance Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional, random, stratified survey done on Sermo, a physician networking platform, between September 9 and 15, 2020. We aimed to sample 1000 physicians divided among the USA, EU, and rest of the world. The survey questioned physicians on the risk-benefit ratio of digital tools, as well as matters of data privacy and trust Statistical Analysis Used: Descriptive statistics examined physicians’ characteristics and opinions by age group, gender, frontline status, and geographic region. ANOVA, t-test, and Chi-square tests with P < 0.05 were viewed as qualitatively different. As this was an exploratory study, we did not adjust for small cell sizes or multiplicity. We used JMP Pro 15 (SAS), as well as Protobi Results: The survey was completed by 1004 physicians with a mean (standard deviation) age of 49.14 (12) years. Enthusiasm was highest for self-monitoring smartwatches (66%) and contact tracing apps (66%) and slightly lower (48–56%) for other tools. Trust was highest for health providers (68%) and lowest for technology companies (30%). Most respondents (69.8%) felt that loosening privacy standards to fight the pandemic would lead to misuse of privacy in the future Conclusion: The survey provides foundational insights into how physicians think of surveillance

Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing “human capital”, “brain capital”, “mental capital”, and “wellbeing” as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.

Assessment of the Feasibility of Using Noninvasive Wearable Biometric Monitoring Sensors to Detect Influenza and the Common Cold Before Symptom Onset.

Importance: Currently, there are no presymptomatic screening methods to identify individuals infected with a respiratory virus to prevent disease spread and to predict their trajectory for resource allocation. Objective: To evaluate the feasibility of using noninvasive, wrist-worn wearable biometric monitoring sensors to detect presymptomatic viral infection after exposure and predict infection severity in patients exposed to H1N1 influenza or human rhinovirus. Design, Setting, and Participants: The cohort H1N1 viral challenge study was conducted during 2018; data were collected from September 11, 2017, to May 4, 2018. The cohort rhinovirus challenge study was conducted during 2015; data were collected from September 14 to 21, 2015. A total of 39 adult participants were recruited for the H1N1 challenge study, and 24 adult participants were recruited for the rhinovirus challenge study. Exclusion criteria for both challenges included chronic respiratory illness and high levels of serum antibodies. Participants in the H1N1 challenge study were isolated in a clinic for a minimum of 8 days after inoculation. The rhinovirus challenge took place on a college campus, and participants were not isolated. Exposures: Participants in the H1N1 challenge study were inoculated via intranasal drops of diluted influenza A/California/03/09 (H1N1) virus with a mean count of 106 using the median tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) assay. Participants in the rhinovirus challenge study were inoculated via intranasal drops of diluted human rhinovirus strain type 16 with a count of 100 using the TCID50 assay. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome measures included cross-validated performance metrics of random forest models to screen for presymptomatic infection and predict infection severity, including accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: A total of 31 participants with H1N1 (24 men [77.4%]; mean [SD] age, 34.7 [12.3] years) and 18 participants with rhinovirus (11 men [61.1%]; mean [SD] age, 21.7 [3.1] years) were included in the analysis after data preprocessing. Separate H1N1 and rhinovirus detection models, using only data on wearble devices as input, were able to distinguish between infection and noninfection with accuracies of up to 92% for H1N1 (90% precision, 90% sensitivity, 93% specificity, and 90% F1 score, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.70-1.00] AUC) and 88% for rhinovirus (100% precision, 78% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 88% F1 score, and 0.96 [95% CI, 0.85-1.00] AUC). The infection severity prediction model was able to distinguish between mild and moderate infection 24 hours prior to symptom onset with an accuracy of 90% for H1N1 (88% precision, 88% sensitivity, 92% specificity, 88% F1 score, and 0.88 [95% CI, 0.72-1.00] AUC) and 89% for rhinovirus (100% precision, 75% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 86% F1 score, and 0.95 [95% CI, 0.79-1.00] AUC). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study suggests that the use of a noninvasive, wrist-worn wearable device to predict an individual's response to viral exposure prior to symptoms is feasible. Harnessing this technology would support early interventions to limit presymptomatic spread of viral respiratory infections, which is timely in the era of COVID-19.